New York and Ebola

Now that a doctor from New York has Ebola, they are bragging about how they will contain it because they have a "world class" health care system. Please. If they contain it, it will be solely because they had almost four weeks to watch what didn't work and learn from it. During that time, they clearly distributed protective gear to hospital workers and set up real isolation units (according to them they have one of these in the hospital where the doctor is being treated). It is almost as if they want to show how much better they are than the Texas hospital - which was given no warning.

For the virus to be in New York is a little concerning - regardless of the health care system. So far, Ebola isn't spreading to family members or other contacts - that we know of - outside of the healthcare system. That means they are either seroconverting (they get the disease and fight it off) without symptoms or they are not getting it. The CDC is missing research opportunities by not testing "contacts." We have had hundreds of opportunities to see how this virus acts in the body and learn more about it, but have not done so.

What is most disturbing about this is that when officials test Ebola patients with a blood test, they do so with the "quick" test. If the person is negative - nothing is ever said about sending it in for the long test to confirm. I did just read that the doctor has had his positive test sent in to confirm, though. This is crazy. Ebola, like HIV lies quietly in the body for a while. WHO recommends that you cannot say someone is negative until they have had the first negative test confirmed 48 hours later by the long test. There is really no need to confirm a positive test.

The true test for the U.S. comes this weekend. By next Tuesday (Oct. 28th), we need to have less than 4 new cases appear here. If no cases appear from the Texas line by November 6th, there is less than a 1% chance any will appear. By November 12th, we need to see less than 2 new cases in NY. (Yes, 4 new cases just appeared in Spain, so they are in trouble - their next milestone is to prevent 16 cases from appearing by November 7th. We really need them to meet this milestone and control the spread in Europe.)

With each new case who circulates in public, we push back the date when we can say the U.S. is Ebola free. This doctor has now pushed the date to December 6th. What is most disturbing is that with each new case we project our arrogance - this disease won't hurt us. I bet that is what the doctor was thinking too- many questioned why he waited until his fever was 103 before going to the hospital. I can tell you the reason: we have no respect for it. Even the suits doctors wear to protect themselves increases the feeling of being separate from the patient- being safe.

The only thing that has proved true so far for the 9 cases in the U.S. is that we do not seem to share it with our contacts. Some will probably say that is because we are so much more "better prepared" or "clean." I say that's not true. The real reason is that we are so much more isolated. If you get sick, does anyone show up at your door with chicken noodle soup? Does someone take care of you while you are in bed? Or wipe your brow with a cool wash cloth? Probably not. Those simple acts of caring that Americans have traded for overly active, workaholic lives, may just save us. Goodness knows that our arrogance won't.