Why Italy and the USA have failed the Covid-19 test (part 1)

If Covid-19 was Smallpox, Bubonic plague, or Polio, Italy and the USA would see over 30% of their population dead because of their poor handling of Covid-19.

Italy went on lockdown over 21 days ago when they were seeing 1,400 new cases each day. Now, they are seeing 5000-6000. Why? Because Covid-19 is spread primarily in hospitals and in households. Yes, 1/3 of its spread can be attributed to community settings such as the workplace and stores, but anyone who thinks we can lock an entire nation in its home with no access to food, services, or sunlight in 2020 is an evil dictator in the making. But we have just increased the number of household transmissions since people are forced together.

Covid-19 is also spread through droplets and things you touch. The only time it is spread through the air (aerosol) is during the process of someone being put on a ventilator and in the rooms where ventilators are used. We believe that the more virus a person is exposed to, the less likely they will survive with Covid-19. This is called "viral load." When you look at images from Italian hospitals, you soon realize that not only do they not have private rooms with people on ventilators, they sometimes have more than people in the same room on a ventilator. Each of those ventilators is spreading the virus throughout the room and increasing the number of viruses the people, including the healthcare workers, are exposed to. Even if you have a hospital solely dedicated to the care of Covid-19 patients, if viral load is a factor, these patients will all be exposed to a higher viral load and will have an increased chance of dying.

WHO has said from the beginning that early detection is the key. Although I completely disagree with mass quarantined/shelter-in-place/and stay-at-home for healthy people, I have long been an advocate for isolating sick people. If you have been following me, this was one of my biggest complaints about the way former President Obama dealt with the ebola outbreak.

In this case, the USA is now falling under the same out-dated methods of mass quarantine like Italy. Historically (even during the SARS outbreak), mass quarantine does nothing to change the final results beyond hurting children's education and the economy. Every time mass quarantine has been implicated in the past 700 years, its failure is always attributed to "those who don't listen." The problem is that if for 700 years people have never 100% listened to quarantine instructions, then why do we suddenly think it will happen now? Instead, we choose to hurt poor people economically, increase the chances of violence against people who are supposedly spreading the virus, and increase the risk you will catch it when a loved one comes down with it. Conveniently, no mathematical model includes the chances of these things happening.