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Sunday, March 15, 2020

We should be thanking China, not pointing fingers at them.

Misinformation across the web about coronavirus is rampant. Even things on the CDC webpage have been generalized and not helpful for this outbreak. But some things are clear and deserve to be posted:
(1) This is not a biological weapon. No country--China, the USA, or E-Swatini created this virus. As of yet, none of the coronaviruses found in any animal match this one with 99% of a DNA match, so we don't even know where the transition occurred from. Covid-19 could have even already existed in our population and just happened to be identified this year. We only know that several people who came down with the virus all worked at or visited a seafood market in China, Wuhan province. These are the first identified cases.
(2) Many Chinese people died from this virus, but their deaths have helped the rest of the world deal with it better. The death rate in China was elevated, but the overall death rate is now only 2.4%-3.9% depending on the source (and probably the country). In South Korea, the death rate is only 0.77%, less than the flu most years.
(3) American leaders are botching things, which is increasing the spread across the USA. --The CDC developed its own test, but it could not effectively process the test fast enough. Hospitals who tested sick people sent them home, only to call them back into quarantine 2-3 days later when they received the results of those tests. Everyone in the US is now entitled to a free coronavirus test, but some states, such as Oregon can only process about 45 tests a day--for the entire state! To make matters worse, this test only applies to people who can afford to see a doctor in the first place. With all the stupid HSAs in place the government is asking poor people to cough up the cash to pay for a visit to the doctor when many of them will only ever experience a low-grade fever and mild cough. The well-off will of course rush to their doctors in droves and pressure them to order the test. And, now China is so mad at us for blaming them for the outbreak (even though it was just a few stupid media outlets), that they are not going to help supply the chemicals needed for the kits, and these are running low.
(4) Even the CDC has admitted that closing schools at this point will not stop the spread of the virus and will increase the risk of older/at-risk individuals developing it since 40% of all children live with grandparents. Despite this, schools in many states, even those with as few as 10 infected individuals, have closed.
(5)Everyone is acting like this is the end of the world. Many people cleaning out stores are not doing it from their own fear, but instead they are doing it from greed--they want to make a buck selling the stuff online. Thankfully, at least some stores, are putting limits on the number of items you can buy.
(6) Cronavirus is subsiding in China, and WHO has produced a report that all policy makers should read to see how it happened there.
(7) According to WHO raw data, this is what the coronavirus looks like as of today. The red line is number of deaths per day (new) and the blue is newly reported cases each day:
Based on this, we should expect another slight jump in number of deaths per day in a couple days or so of this post. The only reason for the jump is that the number of people officially diagnosed has jumped drastically (probably due to improved global testing measures). However, many of these newly diagnosed people are probably mild in the symptom range (based on China's experience). If the spike on the left is not simply mild cases, than we will see a spike in about 8 days on the death chart.
(8) In the new coronavirus stimulus bill, there is evidence that Congress is planning to allow states to quarantine us 12 weeks without pay--since that number seems to be prominent. If it passes in the Senate, there will be no reason for states to not do this because our jobs cannot fire us during this absence. However, after 12 weeks of being closed, there is no guarantee that our jobs will still exist. 
(9) The current restrictions on the size of public assemblies that can meet are illegal based on past Supreme court rulings. Should people who are at greater risk attend public gatherings or go out frequently in public places--no. But government implemented restrictions on this are in violation of 1st and 14th amendment rights. In addition, if the government tried to implement a quarantine at this point, it would be difficult to prove the benefit (since quarantines increase the chance of transmission among families), and it would also be difficult to prove that a disease with a less than 0.77% fatality rate when handled correctly and when accurately monitored (ie both mild and severe cases are recorded instead of only the most severe), is severe enough risk for any quarantine. Note: the President and Congress cannot enact quarantines according to past Supreme Court cases, only states can do that, but they can only do it in times of extreme necessity--i.e. during illness with high mortality rates. .77% or even 3.9% is not a high mortality rate.
(10) Since 99% of all the deaths occur in people over the age of 50, the "at-risk" groups are people over 50 with those ailments (at least 99% of the time). I have not seen a break down anywhere on age and pre-existing conditions, but it would be interesting to see this kind of graphic to get a real idea of how a pre-existing condition combined with age affects the outcome of the disease. For example, of the ten people who died in the UK during this report, 8 were not only men (one risk factor) over the age of 80 (another high risk factor) but also had pre-existing diseases that increased their risk. In addition, the UK is no longer monitoring mild cases. They are letting the virus take its course. 
(11) There have been reports that coronavirus has a higher mortality rate and is more easily transmitted than influenza. This is simply not true, according to everything WHO has published. At the beginning of March, the mortality rate was estimated at between 3-4% (most papers misprinted this as 3.4%) They have stated as more mild cases (which usually go undiagnosed) are confirmed, this number will become lower. In places like South Korea, where they have been monitoring everyone at the rate of 10,000 tests per day, the mortality rate is 0.77%. I have also seen the news reporting that the mortality rate of flu is "only 1-3%" (at the beginning of the coronavirus scare) to now reporting the mortality rate is only 0.1%. The problem is that we can go back and look at the 2017-2018 report on the flu season by the CDC here. Although coronavirus does not really affect children, 20% of the children who had been vaccinated that year died from the flu. The overall mortality rate for the flu for that season was 10% (ten percent). It was the 8th biggest killer of people in the US and killed 55,627 people. In fact, if we take the worldwide numbers of 3-5 million cases of flu each year and a death rate of 290,000-650,000 deaths and do the math we get 6-21% (six to twenty-one percent) mortality rate. 


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